COMPARISON OF LINEAR REGRESSIONS AND NEURAL NETWORKS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

Abstract

Electricity has a major role in humans that is very necessary for daily life. Forecasting of electricity consumption can guide the government's strategy for the use and development of energy in the future. But the complex and non-linear electricity consumption dataset is a challenge. Traditional time series models in such as linear regression are unable to solve nonlinear and complex data-related problems. While neural networks can overcome the problems of nonlinear and complex data relationships. This was proven in the experiments in this study. Experiments carried out with linear regressions and neural networks on the electricity consumption dataset A and the electricity consumption dataset B. Then the RMSE results are compared on the linear regressions and neural networks of the two datasets. On the electricity consumption dataset, A obtained by RMSE of 0.032 used the linear regression, and RMSE of 0.015 used the neural network. On the electricity consumption, dataset B obtained by RMSE of 0.488 used the linear regression, and RMSE of 0.466 used the neural network. The use of neural networks shows a smaller RMSE value compared to the use of linear regressions. This shows that neural networks can overcome nonlinear problems in the electricity consumption dataset A and the electricity consumption dataset B. So that the neural networks are afforded to improve performance better than linear regressions.  This study to prove that there is a nonlinear relationship in the electricity consumption dataset used in this study, and compare which performance is better between using linear regression and neural networks.