PERAMALAN PENJUALAN MOBIL DENGAN MENERAPKAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE DAN SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Dian Pratama Putra; Serly Azhari Siregar; Shandy Rizky Fadillah; Zahwa Kusuma Ningtyas

doi:10.33480/jasdim.v3i2.5631

Dian Pratama Putra Universitas Nusa Mandiri
Serly Azhari Siregar Universitas Nusa Mandiri
Shandy Rizky Fadillah Universitas Nusa Mandiri
Zahwa Kusuma Ningtyas Universitas Nusa Mandiri

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33480/jasdim.v3i2.5631

Keywords: forecasting accuracy, sales forecasting, single exponential smoothing, single moving average

Abstract

Sales forecasting is a critical aspect of the automotive business as it influences marketing strategies, production, and inventory management. This study examines a comparison of Toyota car sales forecasts using the Single Moving Average (SMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) methods. The primary objective is to evaluate the accuracy of the SES method in predicting Toyota car sales and compare it with actual sales data. Historical sales data serve as the basis for forecasting, with the smoothing parameter α tested to obtain the best results. Forecasting with SMA demonstrates improved accuracy as the number of average periods increases. The 2-period SMA produces forecasts that are more responsive to sales trends, while the 3-period SMA provides more stable predictions without compromising accuracy. Meanwhile, the SES method with α = 0.3 delivers reasonably accurate forecasts. By applying this method, companies can make better decisions regarding Toyota car production and inventory management, ultimately enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.

References

Fahreza, A. (2022). Penerapan Data Mining dengan Metode Single Moving Average dalam Pengolahan Data Penerimaan Siswa Baru. Proceeding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Komputer, 2(1), 25–34.

Ginting, P. S., P, H. T., & Hadiana, A. I. (2023). Peramalan Penjualan Mobil Berdasarkan Merek Mobil Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing. IJESPG Journal, 1(3), 213–220. Retrieved from http://ijespgjournal.org

Kasanah, E. S., Yuana, H., & Budiman, S. N. (2022). Implementasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Penjualan Minuman Boba. Antivirus : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Informatika, 16(2), 180–189. https://doi.org/10.35457/antivirus.v16i2.2474

Komariah, K., Kurniawan, E., & Handayani, M. (2022). Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Untuk Prediksi Penjualan Bahan Bangunan. Building of Informatics, Technology and Science (BITS), 4(2), 896–905. https://doi.org/10.47065/bits.v4i2.2140

Kurnia, N. (2022). Penerapan Peramalan Penjualan Sembako Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average (Studi Kasus Toko Kelontong Dedeh Retail). Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Pendidikan, 8(17), 307–316. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7076573

Maricar, M. A. (2019). Analisa perbandingan nilai akurasi moving average dan exponential smoothing untuk sistem peramalan pendapatan pada perusahaan xyz. Jurnal Sistem Dan Informatika (JSI), 13(2), 36–45.

Pongdatu, G. A. N., Abinowi, E., & S, W. (2020). Peramalan Transaksi Penjualan Dengan Metode Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Infomasi Terapan, 6(3), 228–233. https://doi.org/10.33197/jitter.vol6.iss3.2020.438

Pratama, S. H., & Rarasati, N. (2024). Perbandingan Single Moving Average dan Single Smoothing Eksponensial Dalam Peramalan Penjualan Barang Coupling Sucker di PT.Pertamina Ep Asset-1 Field Jambi. Technologia, 3(1), 20–31.

Putra, R. M., Ponggawa, N. A. A. Y., Ramadhani, S. M., & Muhima, R. R. (2023). Analisis Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Single Exponential Smoothing dan Double Exponential Smoothing pada Harga Pembukaan Harian XAU/IDR. Jurnal Riset Inovasi Bidang Informatika Dan Pendidikan Informatika (KERNEL), 4(1), 33–40.

Santiari, N. P. L., & Rahayuda, I. G. S. (2020). Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Pada Toko Gitar. JOINTECS (Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science), 5(3), 203–210. https://doi.org/10.31328/jointecs.v5i3.1520

Santoso, A. B., Rumetna, M. S., & Isnaningtyas, K. (2021). Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Untuk Analisa Peramalan Penjualan. Jurnal Media Informatika Budidarma, 5(2), 756–761. https://doi.org/10.30865/mib.v5i2.2951

Setiawan, I., & Nasution, N. (2022). Peramalan Penjualan Parfum Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average (SMA) (Studi Kasus : Im Parfum Pekanbaru). Journal of Science and Social Research, 5(2), 339–342. https://doi.org/10.54314/jssr.v5i2.934

Syafira, S., Hutahaean, J., & Santoso, S. (2022). Perbandingan Metode SMA dan MWA Dalam Memprediksi Jumlah Penjualan Alat Olahraga. Building of Informatics, Technology and Science (BITS), 3(4), 617–631. https://doi.org/10.47065/bits.v3i4.1409

Wahyuni, T., Primadewi, A., & Artha, E. U. (2024). Penerapan Metode Single Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Potel Ketela. KLIK: Kajian Ilmiah Informatika Dan Komputer, 4(6), 2947–2954. https://doi.org/10.30865/klik.v4i6.1954

Waslin, T. T. A., Sulaiman, O. K., & Haramaini, T. (2022). Aplikasi Prakiraan Perkembangan Covid-19 Di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web. Jurnal Media Informatika Budidarma, 6(3), 1509–1516. https://doi.org/10.30865/mib.v6i3.4408

Zidan, R., Adi Wibowo, S., & Primaswara Prasetya, R. (2023). Penerapan Single Moving Average Untuk Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Paket Wisata Pada Travel Tata Pesona Wisata. JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika), 7(5), 3206–3212. https://doi.org/10.36040/jati.v7i5.7678